Web 2.0 collaborations address uncertainty in climate reconstructions of the past millennium

نویسندگان

  • David Morrill Anderson
  • Bruce A. Bauer
  • Charles R. Buckner
  • Edward Gille
  • Wendy S. Gross
  • Michael Hartman
  • Carrie Morrill
  • Anju M. Shah
  • Eugene R. Wahl
چکیده

Reducing uncertainty in global temperature reconstructions of the past millennium remains the key issue in applying this record to society’s pressing climate change problem. Reconstructions are collaborative, built on the research of hundreds of scientists who apply their diverse scientific expertise and field and laboratory skill to create the individual proxy reconstructions that underlie the multi-proxy, global average temperature time series. Web 2.0 features have enabled collaborative efforts that improve the characterization of uncertainty. Raw data shared via a repository (the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology) enable new reconstructions from the collection of user-generated data. Standards propagated by expert communities facilitate quality control and interoperability. Open access to data and computer code promote transparency and make the science accessible to a broader audience. Blogs, wikis, and listservs share background information and highlight contentious as well as unique aspects of paleo science. A novel approach now underway, titled the Paleoclimate Reconstruction Challenge, and based on the sharing of simulated data (pseudo-proxies) and reconstruction results, seeks to facilitate method development, further reducing uncertainty. Broadly-useful aspects of the Challenge may find application in other fields.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Separating forced from chaotic climate variability over the past millennium

Reconstructions of past climate show notable temperature variability over the past millennium, with relatively warm conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a relatively cold Little Ice Age (LIA). Multimodel simulations of the past millennium are used together with a wide range of reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric mean annual temperature to separate climate variability fro...

متن کامل

Climate over past Millennia

[1] We review evidence for climate change over the past several millennia from instrumental and high-resolution climate ‘‘proxy’’ data sources and climate modeling studies. We focus on changes over the past 1 to 2 millennia. We assess reconstructions and modeling studies analyzing a number of different climate fields, including atmospheric circulation diagnostics, precipitation, and drought. We...

متن کامل

A Gridded Reconstruction of Warm Season Precipitation for AsiaSpanning the Past Half Millennium

The authors reconstructed May–September precipitation over the Asian continent (58–558N, 608–1358E) back to AD 1470 on the basis of tree-ring data, historical documentary records, ice core records, and the few long-term instrumental data series available in the region. They employed the method of Regularized Expectation Maximization (RegEM) and applied it to 44 subregions within the continent. ...

متن کامل

A comparison of model simulations of Asian mega-droughts during the past millennium with proxy reconstructions

Two PMIP3/CMIP5 climate model ensemble simulations of the past millennium have been analysed to identify the occurrence of Asian mega-droughts. The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is used as the key metric for the data comparison of hydro-climatological conditions. The model results are compared with the proxy data of the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). Our study shows that global circu...

متن کامل

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model.

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Earth Science Informatics

دوره 4  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2011